ABUJA — The Nigerian government has reportedly reached an undisclosed ceasefire agreement with Boko Haram under its leader Ibrahim Bakura Doro, an arrangement that has coincided with a reduction in attacks in parts of northeastern Nigeria since June.

The reported agreement has not been publicly confirmed by the Federal Government, but an investigation by The New Humanitarian says three people with contacts among Boko Haram members, including senior figures, independently confirmed that a truce had been operating for approximately three months.

The sources said the ceasefire was connected to negotiations that secured the release of 360 civilians abducted from Ngoshe, a community in Gwoza Local Government Area of Borno State near Nigeria's border with Cameroon.

The civilians were abducted in March during a Boko Haram attack on a nearby military base and remained in captivity for about three months before being released in June.

At the time of their release, Nigerian authorities attributed the outcome to an intelligence led operation involving Operation Hadin Kai and the State Security Service.

The New Humanitarian, however, reports that negotiations involving government representatives, intermediaries and Boko Haram preceded the release of the captives.

According to the investigation, the ceasefire that followed those negotiations has remained in effect since June and could be extended for another 40 days.

Residents in communities around Ngoshe, which have experienced repeated attacks by Boko Haram, have reportedly seen a significant reduction in attacks since the truce began.

The government has not publicly acknowledged that such an agreement exists.

Report alleges ₦5 billion payment

One of the most contentious claims surrounding the negotiations is an allegation that the government paid ₦5 billion, approximately $3.7 million, as part of the arrangement that resulted in the release of the hostages.

The Nigerian government has denied paying ransom.

The alleged payment therefore remains unverified and has not been independently established as fact.

Nigeria's military has also maintained its longstanding position that it does not support ransom payments.

The New Humanitarian said it contacted government, Defence Headquarters and army representatives for confirmation of the ceasefire before publication but did not receive responses.

Questions surrounding the alleged payment had emerged before the latest report.

Borno youth leader Samaila Kaigama previously alleged that billions of naira had been paid in connection with the release of the Ngoshe captives.

The claim generated controversy and was subsequently referenced in security analysis by SBM Intelligence.

Kaigama was later arrested and prosecuted by the State Security Service over separate allegations involving the extortion of families of kidnapping victims.

The existence of those allegations does not establish that the government paid the reported ₦5 billion.

Who is Bakura Doro?

Ibrahim Bakura Doro has emerged as the overall leader of the Boko Haram movement formally known as Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati wal Jihad.

He operates primarily around the northern Lake Chad islands close to the border with Niger.

Boko Haram underwent significant internal fragmentation following the rise of Islamic State West Africa Province and the death of its longtime leader Abubakar Shekau in 2021.

According to The New Humanitarian, three Boko Haram factions now recognise Doro's leadership.

They include Darul Gazwa, operating in southeastern Borno under Alhai Kale, the Sadiku faction associated with Abubakar Sadiku Saidu and the Ali Ngulde faction.

The Ali Ngulde faction is reported to have been responsible for the Ngoshe mass abduction.

Doro's ability to maintain influence over these factions could become important in determining whether the reported ceasefire holds.

ISWAP not part of agreement

The reported truce does not include Islamic State West Africa Province, one of the most powerful armed groups operating in northeastern Nigeria and the wider Lake Chad region.

ISWAP split from Boko Haram following disagreements over leadership, tactics and the targeting of Muslim civilians.

The group maintains links with the wider Islamic State organisation and has continued military operations despite the reported agreement involving Doro's Boko Haram faction.

Fighting between Boko Haram and ISWAP has also continued.

This means that even if the reported ceasefire remains in place, it would not amount to an end to the wider insurgency in northeastern Nigeria.

Communities in areas where ISWAP operates would remain exposed to attacks, while Nigerian and regional forces would continue counter insurgency operations against the group.

Previous ceasefires have collapsed

Nigeria has previously explored negotiations and temporary ceasefires with armed groups during the country's long insurgency.

Those arrangements have not always lasted.

A Nigerian security official familiar with previous dialogue efforts told The New Humanitarian that earlier ceasefires had collapsed, including an armistice during the 2022 and 2023 period.

That history has raised questions about whether the latest reported agreement represents the beginning of a broader peace process or simply a temporary arrangement benefiting both sides.

Conflict researcher Malik Samuel cautioned that the reported agreement could amount to a tactical pause rather than progress towards ending the insurgency.

“It could be just a temporary, tactical ceasefire that benefits both sides, but doesn’t really affect the trajectory of the war,” Samuel said.

There are also concerns over what Boko Haram could do during an extended period without direct confrontation.

Two sources cited in the investigation warned that the group could use the ceasefire to reposition equipment in the Mandara Mountains.

Those concerns have not been independently verified.

Dialogue alongside military operations

The reported agreement also raises broader questions about Nigeria's strategy for ending an insurgency that has lasted for more than 15 years.

Successive governments have relied heavily on military operations while also pursuing rehabilitation programmes for former fighters and, at different periods, exploring negotiations.

According to The New Humanitarian, previous dialogue efforts involving Boko Haram have included participation by the Office of the National Security Adviser and Nigeria's intelligence services.

The military's publicly stated role remains focused primarily on combat operations.

The reported ceasefire suggests that negotiations may be taking place alongside those operations, even without a formal government announcement.

For communities around Ngoshe, the most immediate effect appears to have been a reduction in attacks.

Whether that relative calm can be sustained remains uncertain.

The durability of the arrangement will depend partly on whether Doro can maintain control over the factions aligned with him and whether both sides continue to see value in maintaining the ceasefire.

It will also have little direct effect on attacks carried out by ISWAP, which remains outside the reported agreement.

For now, the central claim remains based on reporting from sources familiar with the negotiations rather than an official announcement from Abuja.

Until the Federal Government confirms the arrangement, the reported ceasefire and the circumstances surrounding the release of the Ngoshe captives should therefore be treated as an undisclosed agreement reported by informed sources rather than an officially acknowledged change in Nigeria's counter insurgency policy.