
WTO DOUBLES 2026 GLOBAL GOODS TRADE GROWTH FORECAST AS AI BOOM OFFSETS WAR DISRUPTIONS
The World Trade Organization has raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9% from 1.9% and lifted its 2027 projection to 4.1% from 2.6%. The WTO says exceptional demand for AI-enabling products is the main reason for the upgrade, with trade in semiconductors and other related goods rising about 67% year-on-year and accounting for nearly half of the increase in the value of merchandise trade during the first half of 2026. The organization simultaneously cut its services-trade forecast because higher aviation fuel costs and disruption from the Middle East conflict are weighing on transport and travel.