NISO EXPLAINS WHY NIGERIANS ARE GETTING FEWER HOURS OF ELECTRICITY AS GAS SHORTAGES AND LOW WATER LEVELS HIT POWER GENERATION

Nigeria’s worsening electricity supply has been attributed to inadequate natural gas deliveries to thermal power plants and reduced water inflows into hydroelectric reservoirs, with the combined constraints limiting the amount of electricity available on the national grid and forcing distribution companies to increase load shedding across their networks.

The Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) disclosed the reasons in a statement issued on Thursday, November 5, 2026, acknowledging that the decline in power generation had affected consumers nationwide. The operator said the shortage of gas had prevented some thermal generating stations from operating at their available capacity, while reduced water inflows had weakened output from hydroelectric power stations.

The two problems have reduced the volume of electricity that can be dispatched to distribution companies, leaving households, businesses and public institutions with fewer hours of supply. NISO also explained that the extent of the disruption differs across the country because each distribution company receives an allocation based on the electricity available and the volume assigned to its network.

“The limited availability of gas has constrained the capacity of affected thermal generating stations to operate at their available levels, while reduced water inflows into reservoirs have impacted the generation capacity of hydroelectric power stations,” the operator stated.

The explanation comes amid growing complaints from electricity consumers who have experienced longer outages and increasingly unpredictable supply. For households, the reduction means greater dependence on generators, inverters and other alternative sources of electricity, while businesses that rely on consistent power face additional operating costs from fuel purchases and backup generation.

NISO said the reduction in available generation had affected the amount of electricity allocated to distribution companies for onward supply to consumers, resulting in shorter supply hours and heightened load shedding across distribution networks. It acknowledged the hardship caused by the shortfall and said it appreciated the concerns raised by members of the public and other stakeholders.

The figures emerging from the power sector illustrate the scale of the pressure on electricity generation. According to data reported by The Guardian from NISO’s NIGGRID dashboard, total generation stood at 2,556.06 megawatts as of 3 p.m. on Thursday, with 15 generating companies reporting to the system. Several generating stations were recording no output at the time, while others were operating at reduced levels. The combined allocation to the 11 distribution companies was reported at 2,926MW, although the allocation figures represent the power assigned to the DisCos and should not be confused with the amount ultimately delivered to individual homes and businesses.

The distribution figures also showed significant differences in the volumes allocated to individual networks. Abuja Electricity Distribution Company received 633MW, the highest allocation, followed by Ibadan Disco with 391MW and Port Harcourt Disco with 320MW. Benin Disco received 264MW, Eko Disco 256MW, Enugu Disco 253MW and Ikeja Electric 249MW. Kano Disco was allocated 173MW, Kaduna Disco 167MW, Jos Disco 146MW and Yola Disco 74MW. These differences help explain why the experience of consumers can vary considerably from one state or distribution area to another, even when the underlying generation shortfall affects the national grid.

The gas supply situation provides another indication of the difficulties facing the electricity sector. Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority’s September 2026 sector fact sheet, as reported by The Guardian, showed that average daily gas utilisation by power plants fell by four per cent to 518 million standard cubic feet per day, compared with August. Domestic natural gas supply also declined by 6.7 per cent to 2.066 billion cubic feet per day during the same period, from approximately 2.21 billion cubic feet in August.

Gas-fired thermal stations are a central part of Nigeria’s grid electricity system, making the availability of fuel a critical factor in how much power can be generated. A generating plant may have the equipment and installed capacity to produce electricity, but it cannot operate at that level if it does not receive sufficient gas. This means that improvements in the technical capacity of power stations alone cannot guarantee higher electricity output unless the fuel supply required to run them is dependable.

Hydroelectric generation faces a different but related constraint. Electricity from hydropower stations depends on the availability of water and the conditions at the reservoirs supplying the turbines. When water inflows decline, the amount of water available for generation can fall, limiting the output that stations can safely sustain. NISO specifically identified reduced inflows into reservoirs as a factor affecting hydroelectric production, although its statement did not provide reservoir-by-reservoir measurements, identify the affected stations or quantify the amount of generation lost.

The simultaneous pressure on gas-fired and hydroelectric generation is particularly significant because it affects two of the major sources of electricity supplied to Nigeria’s national grid. When either source experiences operational constraints, the system has less power available to distribute. When both are affected at the same time, the shortfall can become more difficult to manage, particularly during periods of high demand.

The impact is being felt by consumers through reduced supply hours and load shedding. Distribution companies receive electricity allocations from the national grid and distribute the available power across their networks. When the volume allocated to a DisCo falls, it may have to reduce the amount supplied to different feeders and communities. The resulting outages can therefore be linked to a wider generation shortage, although local distribution faults, maintenance work and other network problems can also affect the electricity reaching customers.

The Federal Government has also acknowledged the recent deterioration in supply, with the Ministry of Power identifying operational and maintenance challenges alongside the gas and hydroelectric constraints. The ministry said the affected areas included Lagos, Abuja, Ogun, Kwara and Oyo states, where consumers had reported reduced electricity supply after previously experiencing improvements. Power Minister Joseph Tegbe said he had engaged the Transmission Company of Nigeria, NISO and distribution companies to address the constraints, accelerate ongoing maintenance and work towards restoring supply.

The ministry said preliminary assessments did not indicate that the latest disruptions were caused by a major or systemic failure of the national grid. Instead, it pointed to a combination of maintenance and operational issues across parts of the electricity value chain, as well as lower generation resulting from gas supply limitations and reduced hydroelectric output. The distinction is important because a decline in generation and a grid collapse are not the same event: a grid can remain operational while the amount of electricity being generated and delivered is insufficient to meet consumer demand.

Some distribution companies have separately acknowledged difficulties meeting their expected supply hours. Ikeja Electric, for example, apologised to customers on Band A feeders over its inability to meet the minimum 20 hours of daily electricity supply associated with that service category, attributing the reduced hours to a shortfall in the power allocated to its network from the national grid. Ibadan Electricity Distribution Company also apologised to affected customers, citing a combination of forced outages, load shedding, network faults and other operational issues.

These explanations highlight the different stages involved in delivering electricity to consumers. Power must first be generated at a station, transmitted through the national network and then distributed through the infrastructure operated by the relevant DisCo. A shortage at the generation stage can reduce the amount available to the entire system, while transmission or distribution problems can create additional interruptions in particular locations. Consequently, even where generation improves, customers may continue to experience outages if faults and constraints elsewhere in the electricity value chain remain unresolved.

NISO said it was working towards diversifying the energy mix supplying the national grid, describing this as part of efforts to strengthen security of supply. The operator also reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining grid stability, optimising the dispatch of available generation and ensuring the secure and efficient operation of the system within the prevailing constraints. However, its November 5 statement did not provide a specific timetable for the restoration of normal supply, identify when gas deliveries would improve or indicate when water inflows into the affected reservoirs would recover.

The proposed diversification of the energy mix is relevant to the longer-term challenge of reducing the grid’s exposure to disruptions affecting individual sources of generation. Greater use of other energy sources could help broaden the supply base, but it would require investment, supporting infrastructure and effective integration into the electricity network. In the immediate term, the restoration of more dependable gas supplies, improved plant availability and the resolution of maintenance and operational problems remain important to increasing the volume of electricity available to consumers.

For Nigerians already dealing with unreliable power, the immediate concern is when supply will improve and whether distribution companies will be able to restore the hours expected by their customers. NISO’s explanation identifies the principal generation constraints behind the latest decline, while the Federal Government says it is engaging the relevant operators to address the problems. Until those constraints are resolved and more electricity becomes available for distribution, households and businesses may continue to face reduced supply and greater reliance on alternative sources of power.

The latest situation again exposes the vulnerability of Nigeria’s electricity supply to disruptions in fuel availability, water inflows and operational performance across the power sector. Although NISO has assured consumers that it is managing the available generation to maintain grid stability, the operator has not announced a definite recovery date. For now, the amount of electricity reaching homes and businesses will continue to depend on how quickly the gas supply, hydroelectric output and other operational constraints improve.